In January, as the vaccination program was getting started in the United States, a “window” opened for the tourist industry. Travel agencies were flooded by telephone calls from Americans trying to make vacation plans; and the majority were interested in Europe, and in the Mediterranean in particular. Yet, by the end of the month, that “window” had shut, as an increase in cases forced France to close its borders, Germany to extend its lockdown and Italy to add to existing pandemic measures.

According to Bloomberg Media, many Americans are nonetheless determined to move forward with their plans: the worst-case scenario for those who do book vacations would be to see them being postponed, while the best-case result would mean that these individuals would be the first to reach Europe, as soon as borders reopen.

“People are just throwing darts at the map,” says Paul Dabrowski, the founder of the online luxury travel agency Skylark, highlighting the uncertainties involved in choosing destinations. Traditional favorites such as Positano, St Tropez and even Majorca seem to be out, as Italy, France and Spain are taking a more conservative approach to opening their borders. Of these three countries, Spain appears the most optimistic, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez expressing his hope that the first tourists from Europe could begin arriving on June 21, with tourists from other countries arriving from July onwards on the basis of bilateral agreements.

Jack Ezon of EMBARK Beyond, a luxury travel company, is of the opinion that Italy, France and Spain will remain closed to Americans this summer. Regarding alternatives, he considers Cyprus a promising destination, and believes Portugal may also take actions to attract tourism. He’s also very confident about Greece. “Emirates Airlines is beginning its flights from the US to Greece on the first of June, and we want our customers to have already booked their seats when people realize that no other destinations will be open. If that is the only place people can visit, there will be very high demand,” Ezon says.

Dabrowski points out that Greece has many advantages this year, as many hotels already have ample outdoor spaces, and that they coped well with last year’s tourist season. He also considers that the opening of the Greek market (from mid-May, as Minister of Tourism Harry Theoharis announced recently) will force other countries to follow suit, but he doesn’t believe that Americans will be able to travel to Europe freely until August.

To overcome the uncertainty of the moment, Ezon advises his clients to make alternative plans, with the option of receiving a refund if needed. They should book both their “definite vacations” (for destinations in the US, Greece or Turkey) and a second “possible package” for Italy or France, and then decide on their final course of action closer to departure time, when they know more about which borders will be open to visitors.

What is clear is that, for those who want to travel, the time to make reservations is now. Many bookings made in 2020 have already been transferred to 2021 and, with the new packages on offer, demand is already so high that availability in some places for as far ahead as the 2022 summer season may be impacted. In any case, this year’s tourist season in Greece is expected to be a considerably extended one, with some hoteliers, such as Santorini’s Daniel Kersner, believing that it could even run on straight throughout the year.

Dabrowski sees one particular development as a crucial factor in the mix. “The approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be a game changer for everyone. In six weeks, this entire situation will be over. People will move into fourth gear very quickly,” he predicts, and adds that more and more people will be looking to secure their “vaxications.”

Moneyreview.gr with information from Bloomberg.